maandag 7 november 2016

Stats and numbers: Build-around cards

Everyone knows that the best cube cards are flexible and easy to play in a lot of decks. Cards with a reasonably high power level that stays more or less the same in every situation and deck.

Not Build-around cards.

Build-arounds are cards that, well, you want and have to build around to make them worth drafting/playing. They're generally not flexible, go into specific decks, and their power level is dependent on the deck they're in.

Ok, so why do you want to play them?

The short answer is that they're fun and can be really powerful.

Apart from that: They can make drafters feel excited and smart for doing something different (think Sneak Attack in rare cubes). They make drafters evaluate cards differently (do you take the slightly more powerful card or the one that goes with your build-around?). They make you pay more attention to signals (when is an archetype open/should you abandon your build-around?).

But, you do have to support them well. There's nothing worse than drafting a build-around card highly a couple of times because you think it's fun and the deck basically never comes together. You want to reward your drafters for going deep. This does mean that you have to keep an eye on the amount of support cards for a build-around.

Today, I wanted to check in on a couple of my own build-arounds to see if support (as of November 4th, 2016) for them is high enough.

Name (and similar)
Archetype(s) - 
[Category] - Number (percentage of cube)
AsFan - This number is the amount of this category of support card you can expect in each pack
Thoughts

Custodi Soulcaller
Archetype(s) - BW and WR (mostly aggressive and/or sacrifice decks)
1-drop creatures - Total 44 (8%), white 10 (1.8%), blue 3 (0.5%), black 10 (1.8%), red 13 (2.4%), green 7 (1.3%), colorless 1 (0.2%)
AsFan - Total 1.20, W/R/B 0.9
A new addition, not sure yet if it's worth it. Numbers seem decent enough, with just under 1 white/red/black 1-drop in each pack. In a draft of 8 people that means there are 21-22 1-drop creatures in the draft. Custodi Soulcaller needs only a couple of 1-drops to get value, so it looks fine for now.

Intangible Virtue
Archetype(s) - Tokens, mainly WG
Tokens - Total 47 (8.5%), white 11 (2%), blue 3 (0.5%), black 9 (1.6%), red 5 (0.9%), green 12 (2.2%), WG/GB 2 each (0.4%), WR/WB 1 each (0.2%), colorless 1 (0.2%)
AsFan - Total 1.28, WG 0.71
There are a good number of token makers in the cube. But, different from Custodi Soulcaller, you actually need more than a couple in your deck to make Intangible Virtue worth it. The effect is really good, but because it doesn't do anything on its own, I'd want at least 7 or 8 token makers in deck. With an AsFan of 1.28 (or, 31 total in an 8 man draft) you would need to pick up about 25% of all the token makers in the draft. The thing is, that's counting all the colors equally. Let's say I would only want white/green (as the 'easiest' color pair). With an AsFan of 0.71, or 17 cards total in an 8-man, you'd have to pick up 40-50% of all token makers in the draft. That's a lot to ask, considering that most token makers are very playable in any deck and I run cards like Roar of the Wurm that don't really go into Intangible Virtue decks.
I think I should probably cut it, or step up my token game.

Blightcaster/Blessed Spirits/Yavimaya Enchantress
Archetype(s) - WB, GB, GW enchantments, but I've seen UW, GU and BU as well.
Enchantments- Total 75 (13.6%), white 19 (3.5%), blue 13 (2.4%), black 15 (2.7%), red 5 (0.9%), green 16 (2.9%), GR 1 (0.2%), GW/WB/WR 2 each (0.4%)
AsFan - Total 2.01, white 0.52, blue 0.35, black 0.41, green 0.44
Enchantments as an archetype look well supported. There should be a total of 48 enchantments in a given 8-man, which would be enough to support multiple enchantment decks. On average, any non-red color combination should have access to around 19 enchantments in an 8-man.

Rage Forger/Abzan Falconer/Armorcraft Judge
Archetype(s) - +1/+1 counter stuff in any WRG combination.
Cards that have/give +1/+1 counters - Total 36 (6.5%), white 14 (2.5%), red 11 (2%), green 7 (1.3%), GR/GW 1 each (0.2%), Colorless 2 (0.4%)
AsFan - Total 0.98, white 0.38, red 0.3, green 0.19
Hm, numbers for this are lower than I thought. In theory, both GR and GW see a +1/+1 counter card every other pack. If nobody is in those colors/the archetype, a Gruul +1/+1 counter player could be able to pick up 12 +1/+1 counter cards. Together with a couple of pay-off cards, that would make a deck. Boros is a little better. But, if anyone else picks up a couple of the cards, the deck will probably not come together as well. In practice, we have the archetype come together more often than the number suggest. Here you notice the difference between 8-man drafts and 1v1 drafts. We mostly do 1v1, which means there are less people to compete with you for the same archetype (although it does happen that we're in the same boat).
Having said that, most of the +1/+1 counter cards are good enough on their own that you will still have a great deck if the actual counter archetype doesn't come together.
Still, it might be a good idea to start looking for more creatures with +1/+1 counters.

Bramblewood Paragon (warriors)
Archetype(s) - Mostly GR aggro or midrange. Overlaps with +1/+1 counters.
GR Warriors - Total 20 (3.6%)
AsFan - 0.55
I love checking the AsFan on different stuff. Apparently, Gruul Warriors have a higher AsFan than Gruul +1/+1 counters does. In practice, the 2 overlap more often than not, but Bramblewood is fine without specific +1/+1 counters support. I don't really feel like I need to push Warriors a lot, because the overlap with counters and otherwise incidental tribal synergy is enough for this card to work.

Thunderclap Wyvern
Archetype(s) - UW flyers, duh.
UW creatures with flying, including token makers - Total 40 (7.3%) (excluding defenders)
AsFan - 1.09
With every pack having at least 1 Azorius card with flying, this is quite an easy card to build around. Better yet, other than some other build-arounds, you can pick this up towards the end and slot it in most UW decks with creatures and have it function.

Weapons Trainer
Archetype(s) - Any Boros go-wide deck. Tokens, weenies, etc.
Colorless equipment - Total 13 (2.4%)
AsFan - 0.35
This is a more narrow build-around, because there's not a huge amount of equipment in the cube. With 8 equipment in an average 8-man it's not likely that you end up with more than 2-3 if you prioritize them. This is actually fine though. I wouldn't want more than 3 equipment in my aggro deck anyway, and you only need 1 in play for Trainer to work. Plus, it's still a 3/2 creature for 2 mana. It's not the most powerful option for Boros, but it's fun.

Silver-Inlaid Dagger
Archetype(s) - Aggro decks
Humans- Total 67 (12.2%)
AsFan - 1.83
Not the best equipment ever, but +2 power for 1+2 equip is fine enough. +3 Power, however, is actually quite sizable for that cost. With just under 1/8th of the entire cube having the human subtype (almost a quarter of all creatures in the cube), it's not hard to meet the conditions for the Dagger.

Isochron Scepter
Archetype(s) - Control decks, or spells-matter decks
Instants of cmc 2 or less - Total 37 (6.7%)
AsFan - 1.01
The AsFan of ~1 is a little deceiving here. A lot of available spells are either not good on Scepter  period (Lightning Axe), or go better in creature decks where Scepter doesn't shine (pump spells, blink spells, Undying Evil). Realistically, I count ~23 cards that I actively want on a Scepter, reducing the AsFan to 0.63 spread across colors. That's still not bad, I guess, but that does mean that if you pick up an early Scepter you have to prioritize imprint targets and sometimes not get there. I guess that's not bad, because the imprint targets are great in most decks so you'll still likely have a good deck even if you have to cut Scepter. Plus, Scepter is quite the insane card when you get it running, so maybe it shouldn't be too easy to pull off.
Btw, I used to have a lot more instants, but I know I've cut a number of them to support enchantments as an archetype. Maybe I should cut a couple of the blue and red enchantments for spells again, giving WBG the enchantment decks and UR the spells decks.


I hope this stats-based peek into supporting archetypes was interesting.
Personally, I think looking into certain cards/archetypes statistically is sometimes necessary to see what works and what doesn't. Sometimes a gut feeling, or personal preference, can create a false or flawed judgment about an archetype/card.
This little thought exercise gave me some deeper insight in my cube and I will look into making changes accordingly.

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